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This study investigates the factors affecting coffee exports in Cameroon. For this purpose, we employed the gravity model. Considering the sample characteristics, the model is estimated with the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) method. The main material of the study is a panel data set covering the years 2001-2021 for ten countries, Cameroon’s main coffee export partners. The findings show that the GDP of importing countries, coffee export prices, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs) positively influence exports, whereas distance, exchange rates, and Cameroon’s GDP have negative impacts. The results highlight Cameroon’s logistics infrastructure deficiencies and the significance of stable, high-quality production. The Cameroonian government should implement policies to improve production quality and efficiency by expanding agricultural extension services and offering farmers input and investment incentives to address these challenges. Additionally, improving port efficiency will necessitate the digitalization of operations, implementation of data-driven planning, and strategic infrastructure investments.

 

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Recent discussions on macroeconomic policy in developing and developed countries have emphasized the crucial role played by the real exchange rate in the adjustment process. There is a growing agreement that sustained real exchange rate misalignment will usually generate severe macroeconomic disequilibria through affecting macroeconomic variables. This study aims to investigate the sources of macroeconomic variable fluctuations in Iran focusing on real exchange rate. We implement the model with a structural VAR model and variance decomposition technique using annual macroeconomic time series data of the Iranian economy from 1970 to 2005. The findings suggest that real exchange rate fluctuations in Iran are mostly explained by monetary shocks as well as oil price shocks. Moreover, the results show that major part of income fluctuations in Iran are due to the price shocks, oil price shocks, money shocks, and supply shocks. This paper recommends that diversifying the economy, developing infrastructure, stabilizing prices, increasing investment, reducing money fluctuations, and controlling money supply may well then contribute to improve growth performance in the economy. According to our results, money disturbances and oil prices effect significantly real exchange rate fluctuations. So, this paper suggests that conducting monetary policy requires a greater caution to stabilize the economy.

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The evolution of financial data shows a high degree of volatility of the series, coupled with increasing difficulties of forecasting financial variables. Some alternative forecasting methods, based on the literature review, have been developed, which can be particularly useful in the analysis of financial time series. Despite of the numerous time series forecasting models, the accuracy of time series forecasting is fundamental to many decision processes. Selecting an efficient technique in unique situations is very difficult task for forecasters. Many researchers have integrated linear and nonlinear methods in order to yield more accurate results. In practice, it is difficult to determine the time series under study are generated from a linear or nonlinear underlying process while many aspects of economic behavior may not be pure linear or nonlinear. Although both ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) models have the flexibility in modeling a variety of problems, none of which is universally the best model used indiscriminately in every forecasting situation. In this paper, based on the foundations of ARIMA and ANNs models, a hybrid method is proposed to forecast exchange rate. Empirical results indicate that integrating linear and nonlinear ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) models can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by either of the above linear and nonlinear models used separately.

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Since Iran is one of the most important countries in producing as well as exporting pistachio and dates Therefore, in this study after calculating exchange rate volatility using the criterion of standard deviation of exchange rate moving average, the effects of this volatility on the export supply of mentioned crops was investigated. Autoregressive distributed lag model, one of the co-integration analysis methods, was used to reach the aim. Export supply function of pistachio to German, Unit Kingdom and Italy and export supply of dates to German, Unit Kingdom and Turkey were estimated. The results indicated that exchange rate volatility has different effects on export of the crops to understudy countries. Therefore in relation to trade policies, the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade should be considered with respect to destined country.

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Exchange rate and inflation rate consistently affect stock price and the return on stocks. Since such effects could impact income distribution, it is important to study such issue carefully. In this paper an attempt is made to study the impact of exchange rate and inflation rate on the real returns as well as the stock price index in Tehran stock market. In this paper, we use a vector autoregreesion (VAR) model as well a vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the relationship among variables. This study uses monthly data from 1983M4 through 2007M3. The results indicate that there exists a stable long–run relationship among the variables included in the model. Exchange rate and inflation rate positively affect the real rate of stock return. However, the impact of inflation rate is stronger than the impact of the exchange rate.

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This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on non-oil export covering the period from 1978 to 2006. The method used in this study is Panel data, and these countries are selected as the hosts: Turkey, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Pakistan. In this research, Gross Domestic Product of the host country, Bilateral Exchange Rate, Price Raito and Dummy Variable are used as regressor for non-oil exports. The result of this study shows that, gross domestic product and exchange rate have positive effect, but price ratio and dummy variable have negative effect on non-oil exports of Iran to these countries. Also Cross Section Specific coefficient shows that exchange rate has positive effect on export to Turkey, The UAE and Pakistan, while negative effect on other countries.

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This article analyses the effects of foreign exchange commitment and exchange rate unification policies on Iran’s non-oil exports during the last three decades. In addition, the effects of these policies on non-oil exports have empirically been estimated. For this purpose, an export supply model was estimated using the econometrics technique of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and reliable Iranian data for the last three decades. The empirical results of this paper shows that during the entire period of 1977-2008, foreign exchange commitment policy has caused non-oil exports to decline, but exchange rate unification policy has had positive effects on Iran’s non-oil exports.

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According to exchange rate pass-through models, exchange rate has a great impact on the competitiveness of exports and determining the effects of exchange rate on export prices can be useful in planning for export promotion. For this purpose, in this paper it has been attempted in the theoretical framework of exchange rate pass- through models and applying ARDL approach the effects of exchange rate on non- oil exports price of Iran during 1971 to 2007 has been tested empirically. The findings show that there is a significant positive relationship between exchange rate and export price index so that by increasing exchange rate (devaluation of national currency) export price index increases significantly. Exchange rate pass- through to export prices is complete and to import prices in terms of destination currency is zero. In other words, the empirical results of this study indicate that in the Iranian economy, exporters are faced with devaluation of national currency (increase in exchange rate), which increases export prices in terms of domestic currency. Thus, the exchange rate changes have not significant effects on export prices in terms of destination currency and just affect the profits of exporters.

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This study tries to model real exchange rate using a two-state Markov autoregressive model. The empirical results indicate that the real exchange rate cycles are well explained by a switching autoregressive pattern rather than a simple autoregressive model. The Markov switching autoregressive model (MSAR) is a non-linear method, which models volatility in financial markets well and identifies periods of regime change of exchange rate volatility. The results show that duration of staying in high volatility regime (regime 1) is less than that of low volatility regime (regime 2) in Iran. The other result is the possibility of testing for the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, implying that existence a regular trend in data and lack of convergence potential real exchange rate to 1 leads to reject the PPP theory. Since there is a regular trend in real exchange rate data, we can reject the PPP theory in Iran. This also indicates that the real variables affect real exchange rate only in the long-run.

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Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, both real and nominal exchange rates have fluctuated widely. Empirical findings indicate significant impact of exchange rate uncertainty on macroeconomic variables such as output, trade, and investment. This article investigates the impact of the real exchange rate uncertainty on total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture sector of Iran during the period of 1974-2007. The uncertainty of real exchange rate is defined as the conditional variances obtained from Exponential Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. The econometric estimation using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach shows that the real exchange rate uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on TFP in Iran's agriculture sector in long- and short term. According to the results, in order to reduce the real exchange rate uncertainty, it is recommended that the appropriate policies should be made by policymakers to lessen the difference between nominal and real exchange rates.  

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Inflation is the main problem which should be overcome both by the government and economic agents. The existence of inflation in an economy causes distortion and disequilibrium in the macroeconomic variables in the forms of decreasing growth rate, rising unemployment rate and uneven income distribution and so on. In addition, the uncertainties caused by the high inflation rates, raise the inflation expectations. This paper tries to found out which type of inflation expectations gives the better explanation of current inflation: backward-looking, forward-looking or some combination of the two? Using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and annual data over the period 1976-2008, the results of hybrid Philips model  show that inflation in Iran is significantly determined by backward-looking inflation expectations, forward-looking inflation expectations, the output gap, exchange rate, and liquidity growth. However, backward-looking inflation expectations are more important than forward-looking expectations. The findings imply that managing inflation expectations, liquidity growth, and exchange rate can complement each other to achieve overall price stability.

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This study investigates the time-varying correlations among oil and coin prices, and exchange rate in Iran. Since investment is a key factor in economic growth and development, so the necessary funds should be provided and directed towards manufacturing and industrial sectors. In addition, understanding the relationships among financial variables allows to the investor to reduce overall portfolio risk without harming to the return on investment. In this paper we use monthly data of the oil and coin prices, and exchange rate in Iran over the period 1991:3 to 2011:2 and examine time-varying correlations using Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach by G@RCH6 software. The analyses made in milieu of the world financial crisis (2008) show that the conditional correlations among assets are time-varying and world financial crisis causes significant changes in dynamic relationships among assets under study in Iran.

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Since various economic sectors, in particular housing sector, need to bank loans, the variations in lending behavior of banks due to changes in key economic variables may jeopardize the sound economic activities. In this study the lending behavior of Bank Maskan of Iran was modeled by a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model during 1991-2011. The results of long run Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) indicated that the broad money supply, inflation rate and stock price fluctuations have indirect effects on lending behavior of Bank Maskan, however the effect of exchange rate variations is positive. In addition, the results of short run VECM showed that variations in the broad money supply have direct effects on lending behavior of Bank Maskan, but inflation rate, exchange rate and stock price fluctuations have no significant effects.

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Trade balance is regarded as both main macroeconomic factor and strategic constraint in developing countries. Exchange rate, which is defined as parity relationship between national currency and foreign currencies, is a vital determinant of countries’ trade balance. As the real effective exchange rate measures the changes in prices and relative costs by a common currency, it is the most popular indicator to measure competitiveness. On one hand, fluctuation of this index represents disequilibrium in the economy, and on the other hand, it is the cause of more instability. Since the direction and size of the effects of real exchange rate on trade balance is an important macroeconomic issue, this articleinvestigates the real effective exchange rate changes on trade balance in Iran and its’ major partners using the Vector Error Correction Model ( VECM ) over the period 1993-2011. The results indicate that the real effective exchange rate volatility reduces trade balance only for Germany in the short run and rises it for Italy in the long run.

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In recent years, Iran has experienced high level depreciation of the Nominal Exchange Rate (NER). The ultimate effects of such depreciation on Iranian families’ welfare and income distribution have been a challenging issue among policymakers and researchers. Accordingly, this study evaluates the economic effects of NER depreciation on the rice market, using spatial price equilibrium model. The model was calibrated for the base year 2010 and was executed using GAMS programming language and was solved by the PATH solver. The results suggested that decreasing the NER would be detrimental. Social welfare is adversely affected by depreciation of the NER. This shock would also decrease real and per capita income and increase slightly the incidence, the gap, and severity of poverty. Also, the regional effects were found to vary, depending on being a net exporter or a net importer region. Overall, this study contributes to previous studies by considering income effects and import exemptions in the model. 

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Exchange rate is the key variable in each economy. This paper tries to examine the effects of volatilities in exchange rate market on selected macroeconomic variables in Iran, and to present some strategic recommendations. Inspiring by Danmola method, this paper uses the variance decomposition and impulse response function based on Cholesky decomposition of Vector-autoregressive method. The findings show that real exchange rate volatility has the most effect on profit rate of the short-run deposits during 2001:Q1-2012:Q4. Following profit rate of short-run deposits, the highest variation in inflation rate is explained by real exchange rate volatility.  The economic growth is affected positively by exchange rate volatility (EEV) in both short- and long-run, but it is influenced negatively by EEV in the midterm.  On the other hand, trade balance is deteriorated by shocks in real exchange rate with short lags. Our findings are compatible with those of similar studies among developing countries.

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Among the food products, grains play an important role in the consumption patterns of people, especially in the developing countries. Since Iran's main source of public dietary energy comes directly from grains, investigating and identifying the determinants of import of these products can be an important step towards food security. Most experimental studies consider import of grains as only a function of relative prices and real income, whereas, income inequality is also a variable affecting the import of grains. The present study evaluates the effect of income inequality on the import of grains in Iran's economy during the years 1969-2009. For this purpose, the relationship of grain import with gross domestic production (GDP), grain production, real exchange rate, and income inequality was evaluated for Iran by using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicate that the relationship between income inequality and grain import is positive and its coefficient is +0.55%. This implies that 1% increase in income inequality increases grain import by 0.55%. Also, the effect of gross domestic production on grains import is positive and the real exchange rate and grains production variables have a negative and significant effect on grains import. 

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The real effective exchange rate and its uncertainty are among the most important macroeconomic variables that affect different economic sectors from various aspects. Since the changes in exchange rate have no identical impacts on all sectors of the economy and regarding considerable importance of industrial development on economic development, this study examines and evaluates the effects of real effective of exchange rate and its uncertainty on the value-added of industrial subsectors based on the two-digit codes ISIC-REV4 using Panel data and Engel-Granger methods during 1979-2014. The results show that the real effective exchange rate is of different effects on various subsectors of the industry while its uncertainty has no effect on sub-sectors’ value-added.  Consequently, there is no single exchange rate policy in industrial sector due to different foreign exchange requirements in its subsectors.

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Smuggling is a part of informal economy with numerous negative effects on economy and government revenues. Using E-MIMIC method, this study tries to estimate an index of smuggling to Iran and to examine the causes and consequences of its growth. In order to trace the smuggling of imported goods, we consider the difference between imports and exports to Iran. The results show that sanctions, government intervention in exchange rate market, and real exchange rate are the most influential factors in smuggling. The estimated index shows that smuggling was low during the war and early post-war years due to great subsidies granted by the government to formal importers in the form of low exchange rates. Allocation of subsidized foreign currencies to importers resulted in low under-invoice or even over-invoice of imports in some years. However, over the 2000s, after unification of exchange rates and elimination of the foreign currency’ subsidy, the real size of smuggling increased 9.55% per annum, on average. In addition, the relative size of smuggling decreased due to higher growth rate in formal imports. The effect of sanctions was extremely significant. As a result of sanctions, smuggling increased from 24 percent of formal imports in 2010 to 60 percent in 2011 and 75 percent in 2014.