Showing 19 results for Causality
Volume 5, Issue 2 (3-2025)
Abstract
The duality of causality-coincidence is one of the important issues in the history of human thought. The theory of causality in Islamic philosophy was formed on the axis of essential possibility and, after passing from the elementary period, reached its peak in Allameh Tabataba'i. On the other hand, the theory of coincidence reached its perfection in David Hume after its development. The parties to the dispute argue around this axis whether the preference of existence over non-existence in essences requires a preferred cause or not? Regardless of whether the aforementioned preference is due to a cause or chance, the more important question is whether the occurrence of the aforementioned preference in essence is possible or not? If this preference is impossible, the necessity of the existence of a third perspective and a departure from the aforementioned duality is established. This article seeks to explain the aforementioned challenge and present a solution based on Lewis's idea of possible worlds. Of course, this perspective has no connection to Lewis's causal perspective.
Volume 9, Issue 2 (12-2019)
Abstract
Researchers have recently focused on integrating motivation and commitment models and have presented mixed models. This research, for the first time, presents an integrated model of motivation (Self-Determination Theory) and commitment (Three-Component Model), from a person-centered view. This study was carried out using a two-step cluster analysis method including hierarchical method and optimization of the profiles distances on 306 knowledge workers of four Iranian organizations. The results reveal four profiles, named based on their characteristics, "people with diverse and mild motives," "motivated people with mild intrinsic motives," "motivated people with mild external motives," and "people with internal motives." The characteristics of these profiles are examined concerning motivation and commitment. The results of this research can help to expand the literature of the mixed models of commitment and motivation. They can also be helpful for managers in terms of recognizing the knowledgeable employees of their organizations and categorizing them in terms of motivation, commitment and personality traits.
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2010)
Abstract
Economic liberalization policy has been among the major concern of the governments during the last few decades. However, its impact on economic growth is still a controversial issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of trade liberalization and financial development on economic growth in Iran using annual observations over the period 1973-2007. The current study would use ARDL technique to estimate the empirical model.
The findings of this paper indicate that there is a long run positive and significant relationship between trade liberalization and financial development and economic growth in Iran over the period of the study. The error correction coefficient is around 0.32 showing that the adjustment towards the long run equilibrium takes place within almost three years. The Granger causality test indicates that causality runs from trade liberalization and financial development to GDP.
Volume 11, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Abstract
Nowadays, the effect and importance of housing and its role in Iran’s economy cannot be underestimated. Housing as a fundamental and basic need for Iranian households is not just a shelter, but is considered as a crucial asset. It has a superior financial value as well. Expansion in urbanization, especially in Tehran, regarding its financial and political importance has contributed to this situation. In this paper, using time interval data between the years 1981 to 2005, the casual relation between variables which affect housing in urban districts through analyzing and monitoring Granger-Hissao, Simes causality test, have been utilized and its impacts are examined in self-regression model. The results indicate that there was a causality relation between price of house, bank loans, number of households and their incomes. Nevertheless, house price had the most impact on instabilities of housing during this period.
Volume 11, Issue 4 (12-2007)
Abstract
This article deals with an important topic in the law of civil responsibility; i.e. the participation of force majeure with the defendant’s fault in the arising of damages. It falls under the general heading of the plurality of causes in arising of damages. In such cases, the important question is the nature of the responsibility of each cause. In answering the question, two theories are set forth: integral responsibility and partial responsibility. According to the first, each cause is bound to compensate the damages in full. According to the second, each of them must only compensate part of the damages. The authors are of the view that the theory of partial causality fits Iranian legal principles.
Volume 12, Issue 1 (5-2012)
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to investigate the validity of Wagner’s law and the Keynesian view with regards to the relationship between the non-oil gross domestic product and the public sector size for the Iranian economy during the period of 1967-2007. Time series analysis techniques have been used which include unit root tests, cointegration tests and Hsiao causality test. The findings indicate that Wagner’s Law is confirmed in both the short-run and the long-run; whereas the Keynesian view is approved only in the short-run for Iran.
Volume 12, Issue 3 (9-2012)
Abstract
The assumption of a linear relationship between export and economic growth in previous investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. In present study the relationship between export and economic growth in economies of Caspian Sea border countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) is explored with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results of study show that nonlinearities exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.
Volume 13, Issue 1 (4-2013)
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in the Iranian economy during 1973-2007. To explore a long-term relationship between variables, Bounds Testing Approach of Pesaran and others (2001) was used and to investigate the interface and causality between financial sector development and poverty reduction Dolado and Lutkepohl’s approach and causalty test (1996) was applied. In this paper for showing financial development, three alternative indicators and for representing poverty the cost of private consumption per capita are used. Results from this study indicate a long-term relationship between variables in the model. Dolado and Lutkepohl causality test results also show that financial development is not effective in poverty reduction .
Volume 14, Issue 2 (5-2014)
Abstract
This paper examines the short run, long run and causal relationship among economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Iran over the period 1977–2010. Using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration; the results support a long-run relationship among the variables. Also, the estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita in short- and long- run are 0.03 and 0.07, respectively; and the income elasticity of employment ratio in short run and long run are 0.85 and 3.25, respectively. Regarding the causality test, our findings indicate that, there is a unidirectional causality from GDP per capita to both energy consumption and carbon emissions per capita; also, employment ratio causes economic growth in both short run and long run. The overall results show that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, have not likely adverse impacts on economic growth in Iran. In addition, the paper shows that establishment of labor-intensive industries is of considerable positive impact on the long run economic growth in Iran.
Volume 15, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Abstract
The basis of civil liability is so important that it would not be exaggerating if one says, the basis of civil liability is the most important issue in private law. From the beginning of the formation of civil liability law, the lawyers were seeking a basis to justify it and the various theories in this field have been presented. In this article, "opposability", as a new theory on the basis of civil liability is provided. According to this theory, the basis of civil liability, is the opposability of damage to the wrongdoer. The criterion of opposability is the relation of causality customary.
This theory also has a basis in religious jurisprudence (FEQ) and can justify all responsibility rules in religious jurisprudence. Some of Islamic jurists have mentioned this issue in their works. In spite of the first section of the Civil Liability Act and under the doctrine of some lawyers who have believed to the theory of fault, in Iranian law, the theory of opposability is more suitable than other theories. In western legal systems such as French law and Common law, liability is principally based on the theory of fault, but in some cases, liability without fault is accepted. The doctrines of these systems have presented and accepted new theories of liability and it seems that lawyers welcome the theory of opposability.
Volume 15, Issue 4 (2-2016)
Abstract
One century has passed since the explanation of relationship between financial development and economic growth by Schumpeter. However, there are serious debates among economists in this regard. Especially, the causality relationship between economic growth and financial development, in most of the cases, the causality from economic growth to financial development is confirmed in different countries. One of the neglected issues in this field is to consider the infrastructures, which can play important roles in the effectiveness of financial development on economic growth. One pillar of the financial development is the quality of banking financial services, which to a great extent is influenced by ownership and intervention of government in banking system. This paper, by using VECM model, tests the tri-variate causality among economic growthand financial development in the presence of public ownership of banks index during 1980 to 2010. The results show that in contrast to the bi-variate causality tests, which indicate the adverse causality from economic growth to financial development, the tri-variate causality tests reject this claim except for the case of the commercial banks’ assets.
Volume 16, Issue 1 (5-2016)
Abstract
Understanding the nature of the causal relationship among economic variables is crucial for the economic policy-makers and planners. So, this study investigates Granger causality between producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for the economy of Iran. From a policy-making point of view, the findings of the study may inform economic policy-makers in pursuing effective anti-inflationary policies. To this end, monthly data are used over the period 1990- 2011. The results of the cointegration test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables. According to Hsiao test, there is bi-directional causality between consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) in both short-run and long-run. Toda and Yamamoto test also indicate the bi-directional causal relationship between the variables. However, it seems that causality from PPI to CPI is stronger than that from CPI to PPI, supporting the Cushing and McGarvey (1990) hypothesis.
Volume 16, Issue 5 (9-2014)
Abstract
One of the current challenges and complications in the world is the climate change and global warming, which has numerous and varied effects and consequences in different regions. In this regard, the effects of economic activities on the increase in greenhouse gases and also the effects of greenhouse gases on economic activities have become increasingly controversial. In this study, an investigation was done upon the bidirectional causality relationship between real gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions per capita in different countries. For this purpose, the Vector Auto-Regression Model with the micro panel application was used and the World Bank member countries were divided into different groups. Results indicated bidirectional causality relationship between Gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 for three groups of countries. In addition, there was a one-way causal relationship from GDP o carbon dioxide volume for subgroups of countries with high average economic growth rate (HGR) and the rest of the world countries (ROW). This means that, to accomplish the international goals of decreasing the emissions of pollutant gases, collaboration between HGR and ROW group of the countries with industrial countries is indispensable. Moreover, heterogeneous non-causality test for Iran suggests that the economic activities are having increasingly negative environmental impacts on the country.
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Abstract
Exacerbating income inequality and increasing crimes give rise to waste of human and financial resources of the society. However, causality direction between income inequality and crime remains a controversial issue. Applying Hsiao’s causality test for the 1984-2014 period, this study examines the direction of causality between these social problems in Iran. The crimes under study include crimes against property (embezzlement, bribery, forgery, theft and bounced checks) and violent crimes (murder, battery, duress and harassment). In addition, Gini coefficient is used as an inequality index. The optimal lag lengths are one for crimes against property and two for violent crimes, respectively. Findings indicate significant bidirectional causal relationships between income inequality and two kinds of crimes.
Volume 20, Issue 3 (9-2020)
Abstract
In recent decades, the inflation phenomenon has been one of the most important issues for Iranian economy. Regardless of its effects on economy, identifying the determinants of inflation has always been a challenge in all economies. Therefore, in order to compare the endogenous money theory with the quantity theory of money, this study analyzes the relationship between inflation and its determinants. To this end, the spectral analysis approach at high and low frequencies is applied during the period 1991: Q1 to 2018: Q1. The results show that there is the causality relationship from the growth of liquidity towards inflation as well as from inflation to liquidity in the short- term and long-term. In addition, there is the causality relationship from the monetary base growth to inflation in the long-term, while this causal relationship runs from monetary base growth towards inflation in the short-term. Moreover, the causality relationship from money multiplier growth to inflation is confirmed in the long-term. Consequently, the causes of inflation are different in the short- and long-term.
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Abstract
For more than a century, the causal relationship between government size and economic growth has been a challenging issue in the public sector economics. However, there is no theoretical or empirical consensus among economists on this issue. Accordingly, it seems that the best way to resolve these theoretical and empirical contradictions is experimentally investigation the causal relationship between government size and economic growth in each country. Therefore, this paper investigates the causal relationship between government size and economic growth using the Markov-Switching Granger Causality Approach in Iran over the period 1967-2017. The findings confirmed the existence of a non-linear causal relationship between government size and economic growth and showed that government size had a significant negative effect on economic growth in the form of a two-regime structure (regime Zero: 1966-2002 and regime one:1983-1987), although this negative effect was greater in regime one than in regime zero. This larger negative effect can be rooted in the fact that the share of current expenditure in total government expenditure was significantly larger in the years related to regime one (compared to regime zero). Finally, contrary to Wagner's law, Findings did not confirm the positive and significant effect of economic growth on government size in Iranian economy.
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Abstract
The 2008 global financial crisis and the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have attracted interest in the issue of fiscal policy. Since fiscal policy plays an important role in alleviating the costs of these crises, understanding the relationships between fiscal policy components is crucial and has important implications for choosing fiscal policies in the field of public economics. This study aims to examine the causal links between the fiscal policy components, i.e., government expenditures (current and development) and government revenues (tax and oil) in Iran, using quarterly data for the period of 1990:2-2019:1. For this purpose, first, we employ the time domain Toda-Yamamoto causality test to check the causal relationship among these variables. Then, due to the various characteristics of variables in the frequency bands, we implement a dynamic analysis through wavelet coherence approach and wavelet phase-difference in order to explore the joint time-frequency domain causal relationship between government revenues and expenditure categories. The results of the wavelet analysis show that the linkage between the government revenues and expenditures pairs is not the same across all time horizons and a strong heterogeneity in the revealed interrelationships is detected over time and across scales. Overall, the results reveal various causal effects and confirm the expenditure dominance hypothesis for oil revenue, and revenue dominance hypothesis for tax revenue at different frequencies.
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Empirical analysis of export-led growth (ELG), growth-Led export (GLE), import-led growth (ILG) and growth-Led imports (GLI) hypotheses, are supported by a review of the trade literature and economic growth, which creates verifiable evidence using scientific methods for interpretation. To start with the first hypothesis, ELG is also expressed as the role of exports in economic growth in most empirical researches. The ELG hypothesis is described as a development strategy that focuses on foreign exports while simultaneously aiming to strengthen productive capacity that is consistent with economic growth. This hypothesis includes the promotion of exports and the acquisition of foreign exchange reserves by adopting certain policies supported by advanced technology can potentially benefit economic growth. Exporting is considered a tool for long-term economies of scale. Exports promote economic growth in the domestic market through the use of more technology and skilled labor. This process leads to improved efficiency and productivity in the economy.
In line with the above, it can be argued that there may be a non-linear causal relationship between output, export and import, and awareness of this issue and its extent is of great importance for planners and policy makers. Therefore, how to investigate the relationship between non-linear causality and mutual effects of output, export and import needs to be experimentally investigated in Iran. For this purpose, the present study examines the analysis of the non-linear causality relationship between output, export and import and confirms the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran using quarterly data during the period 1988-2022. In this regard, the theoretical foundations related to the subject will be examined first, and then some related studies will be reviewed. In the following, the introduced model will be estimated and analyzed and the conclusion will be presented.
Methodology
In this study, the non-linear causality relationship between output, export, and import is investigated and the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran is examined using a MS-VAR model. This paper employs a MS-VAR model to determine the asymmetric relationship between the variables. In this model, the parameters are time-dependent and the variables in the VAR model behave based on the types of regimes (states) and the transition probabilities between them. This model is used to explore the regime-dependent responses of the output to export and import under different regimes. In the MS model, regimes are expected to pursue a latent random process. One of the most prominent peculiarities of the MS model is its ability to specify the shock performances differently in diverse manners. They are a subset of time series models that are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of variables under different circumstances. In addition, these models are generally suitable for capturing unobserved asymmetries in time series.
Findings
Since the Iranian economy is export-dependent, it seems that in case of structural breaks, the linear correlation method of the model is insufficient to estimate the total unit effect. Therefore, the Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) is used to analyze the nonlinear causality relationship between economic growth, export and import and to confirm the hypotheses of export- output growth and import-output growth. Three main data sets including real GDP, real exports and real imports are considered in logarithmic and differential form. The results of the unit root test show that all variables are at a stationary level. According to the results obtained in table (2), lag 5, which has the lowest value of Akaike and Schwartz, is determined as the optimal lag order.
As can be seen in table (3), in the first stage, the value of the probability value of the χ2 test, which is less than one percent, indicates the non-linearity of the relationship between the variables. Hamilton states that the regime with intercept negative origin represents the bust regime and the regime with intercept positive origin indicates the boom regime. Here, the effect of intercept on economic growth in the first regime is positive and significant, but in the second regime, its effect on economic growth is negative and insignificant. Therefore, here the first regime represents the boom regime and the second regime represents the bust one. According to the results of the probability matrix, it can be said that the boom regime is more stable than the bust. Also, the results obtained from the causality relationship indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e. the hypotheses of export-output growth and import- output growth in Iran. In addition, the results show that in the boom regime, there is a one-way non-linear causal relationship between imports and exports from the export to import side. There is a two-way causality relationship between imports and exports in the recession regime.
Discussion and Conclusion
In the present study, the non-linear causality relationship and the confirmation of export-output growth and import-output growth hypotheses in Iran have been investigated using quarterly data during the period from 1988 to 2022. For this purpose, the non-linear approach Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) was used to investigate the non-linear causality relationship.
The results show that the first regime (boom) is more stable and attractive than the second regime (bust). The results obtained from the causality relationship also indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e., export-output growth, import-output growth in Iran.
Vahid Khademzadeh,
Volume 27, Issue 3 (6-2020)
Abstract
According to the cognitive theory of metaphor, conceptual metaphors are an integral part of the human mind so that we can see these metaphors in all aspects of human thoughts and actions. A part of these metaphors is shaped based on up/down spatial orientations. Based on these metaphors, spatial orientations play a significant role in human understanding of many abstract concepts. These orientational metaphors are visible in ordinary and natural languages, as well as in specialized and scientific texts. It is shown in this paper that a part of these up-down orientational metaphors have also been used in Mullā Ṣadrā's philosophy: the “Having Control or Force Is Up, Being Subject to Control or Force Is Down” metaphor has been used to understand the causal relationship. The “Good Is Up and Bad Is Down” metaphor makes understandable that the source of good attributes is in transcendent and higher world and the source of bad attributes is in material and lowest world. The “More Perfect Is Up and Less Perfect Is Down” metaphor has been used to understand the gradational hierarchy of the beings.